By Stephanie Stoopen Menéndez
Scientists estimate that AH1N1 strain is eight times more deadly than the typical seasonal flu. Science, a journal published by the Imperial College London states that during the Mexican outbreak 4 out of one thousand people who got the disease, died. This pandemic is being compared with the Asian flu of 1957 that killed near two million people. On the other hand, seasonal flu only kills 10 or 20% of this number.
The consequences of a similar epidemic to the Asian Flu of 1957 would be much greater now, they would include the health sector and also the economic and social areas. Scientists are certain that this epidemic will be around for approximately two years. According to Keiji Fukuda, the head for the Flu division of the WHO, “the historical record of flu pandemics indicates one third of the world’s population gets infected in such outbreaks” Other independent experts agree on this estimate.
In spite of this, Fukuda said that the estimates based on past experiences should not constitute a prediction for the current situation since it is impossible to know what will happen at this stage. This new string of flu is dangerous because since it has never been around, humans have no possible immunity. Chris Smith, a scientist from Cambridge University states that “everyone is immunologically vulnerable, it is highly likely that once it starts to spread, people will catch it. And since the majority of the world’s population are in contact with one another, you’re going to get quite a lot of spread."
The fact that 30% of the population could get the virus does not mean that two billion will die, there is a cure and each person responds in a different way to the disease.